A Simple Investor

NEWS!

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Wed, 28 Feb 2007 10:23:00 +0000

Haven been quite tied up with other stuff, so never really posted much. All the Asian stock markets crashed today. I had my fair share as my portfolio suffered the biggest loss in a day today.

Anyway I am working on a new personal site for myself. It will be an integrated blog site where I will post everything under the sun, including my interests: investments, drawings, sales, and everything about me! Do look out for it!

Cheers to a brighter tomorrow.

Corporate Tax Cut - SIngapore

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Thu, 22 Feb 2007 05:09:00 +0000

As announced, Singapore's companies shall receive a corporate tax cut. This shall have a big impact on the companies' overall earnings, which in turn will result in higher after-tax profits.

I saw this report by Citigroup (soon to be called Citi) and I thought it will be interesting to be used as a reference:

(if its not clear, I believe the file can be viewed clearly when you click on it)

Stcok Watch: CapitaLand

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Wed, 14 Feb 2007 01:56:00 +0000

Firstly, CapitaLand has released it 4th quarter results and from the figures provided by analysts, they posted a 389 percent surge in fourth-quarter net profit to S$455.8 million ($295.8 million), beating analysts' expectations of 9 percent profit growth. This amazing result will surely boost the stock price of CapitaLand.

Secondly, They just bought a significant share in a Japan Reit recently. This will have them take their first step to expand into Japan. With their rapid expansion in China as well, investors can expect further uptrend in the future , and I foresee an upgrade on the recommendation for the stock. Cheers to a day of ups for Singapore market!

Outlook for the week! + New/Old Book?

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Sun, 11 Feb 2007 14:04:00 +0000

Just caught a book selling in San bookstore recently. It's called "Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham. This book is supposedly recommended by Warren Buffett himself, when he mentioned this is one of the books which he read and learnt from. Wonder if its a good title?

Anyway, just read in the news that oil prices had eased once more, perhaps this may give manufacturing stocks a push? As for Singapore Market, outlook remains bullish, but I guess a major correction will come soon. My guess is that with the CNY approaching, volumes should be high, with investors and speculators both hoping to get a FAT wallet for the holidays!

Stock Watch: City Spring Trust shall be listed on 12 Feb, Monday. IPO price stands at maximum bid of S$0.89 a share. With all the sky high prices on the first day of trade of IPOs listed these days, we can expect pretty good outlook for the stock!
(p/s Termasek Holdings backs this one up!)

Stock Recommendations

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Wed, 07 Feb 2007 04:40:00 +0000

Merill Lynch
Stocks / Target price
1) CapitaLand 8.58
2) City Development 16.75
3) F&N 6.10
4) Gallant Investments 1.63
5) Keppel Land 9.25

DBS Vickers
Stocks / Target price
1) SP Chemicals 1.20
2) Wheelock Properties 3.55
3) China EnerSave 0.26
4) Capitamall Trust 3.64
5) China Fishery 4.97
6) Cosco Corp 3.23
7) Keppel Corp 23.40
8) Suntec Reits 2.20
9) Epure Int 1.85
10) Inter-Roller 1.05
11) Jiutian Chemical 2.03
12) MMI Holdings 1.58
13) SC Global 5.00

Straits Times Index

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Tue, 06 Feb 2007 10:45:00 +0000

Some updates recently on STI....just FYI...

Stocks / Index Weight (%)
Allgreen 0.53
Ascendasreit 0.93
CapitaComm 0.61
CapitaLand 4.75
CapitaMall 0.95
Chart SemiCond 0.83
CityDev 2.86
ComfortDelGro 1.37
Cosco Corp 0.97
Creative Tech 0.28
DBS Grp 10.75
Datacraft 0.17
F&N 2.31
Gen Intl 0.60
HK Land 3.78
Hyflux 0.28
JMH 2.97
JSH 2.06
Jardine C&C 0.72
Jurong Tech 0.06
Keppel Corp 4.68
Keppel Land 1.11
Labroy Marine 0.25
M1 0.38
NOL 0.52
Noble Grp 0.36
OCBC Bk 8.84
Olam 0.43
Parkway Hldgs 0.62
People's Food 0.34
SGX 3.19
SIA 4.35
SPC 0.36
SPH 3.30
ST Engg 1.55
STATSChP 0.80
Semb Corp Ind 1.67
SembMar 0.81
SingPost 0.62
SingTel 11.43
Star Hub 0.82
SuntecReit 0.88
TAC 0.18
Thai Beverage 0.62
UOB 10.92
UOL 1.10
UTAC 0.41
Venture Corp 0.85
Want Want 0.37
Wing Tai 0.41

Stock Focus - Asiapharm

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Fri, 02 Feb 2007 01:52:00 +0000

Notice I have taken keen interest into this company....just sharing my view and updates.

Recommendations:

1) CIMB - OUTPERFORM, target price - S$0.96

2) OCBC - BUY, target price - S$0.87

News update:

China's National Development andReform Commission (NRDC) announced its latest price changes to 354 drugs,effective 26 Jan 07. Over 240 drug prices were cut by an average of 20%while prices of 100+ drugs' were increased. APHM announced yesterday that 3patented drugs were affected (Maitongna, Okai and Sidinuo).

Strong fundamentals with its aquisitions and monoply on some drugs will result in only a marginal hit from the news. Strong ability to adapt to the recent regulatory changes in the China drug industry proves its ability.

Current Stock Watch: Asiapharm, Sapphire, Aztech, Lifebrandz, Hong Leong Asia

Outlook

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Tue, 30 Jan 2007 04:23:00 +0000

Seems like its going to be a peaceful week ahead. Fluctuations at around STI 3100 to 3200. Time to relax a bit and observe for new potentials.

Current Stock Watch : Sapphire, Capitaland, Capitamall, Lifebrandz, Asiapharm

Market Pulse

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Fri, 26 Jan 2007 01:35:00 +0000

I always believe that the real mover ans shaker of the stock market is the US. After disappointing results from pharmaceutical and energy sectors (due to dropping oil prices), Dow Jones dropped 0.94%. Even with the better than expected Microsoft results, the index was still down. This, of course, affects the whole Asian market.

Singapore market took a beating yesterday (largest single day drop since May) and today. Analysts from UOB Kay Hian expects a strong support at 3050/3070 for STI, after which a rebound is very much expected.

Current Stock Watch: Genting Int, Asiapharm, Pine Agritech, Lifebrandz, Sapphire

Asiapharm...again!

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Wed, 24 Jan 2007 05:45:00 +0000

6-month MA price graph of Asiapharm

Applying simple technical analysis,for a 10 day - 20 day moving average comparison, there is a upward trend for Asiapharm. Applying simple fundamentals: rising price, good trading volume, good company fundamentals, good corporate news, strengthening of Chinese yuan, potential growth in pharmeceutical sector.....all points toward a buy for this stock! DBS Vickers recommends a BUY for the stock with price target of S$1.00.

Other stocks heavily invested in China which will be likely to benefit from the strengthening of yuan include Keppeland, Capitaliand, Cap-China REIT etc.

Current Stock Watch: Lifebrandz, Capitaland, Asiapharm, Sapphire

Market Outlook

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Mon, 22 Jan 2007 15:29:00 +0000

It's been a while since last posted....was quite confused on the market outlook these days. Seems that the high volume is going back to the penny stocks! Will another bull market result like the previous post-SARS period? I also notice the drop in volume on warrents. Government announcement on the 1% cut will benefit the big companies, and from the 70 plus point raise in STI, a trend can be observed, i.e. buying in of the blue chips.

I have also decided to include a Current Stock Watch section after my posts. They will represent the stocks I will be observing and eyeing on.

Current Stock Watch: Sapphire, Lifebrandz

Stock Focus - China Stocks

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Wed, 17 Jan 2007 04:46:00 +0000

Research by Deutsche Bank: China Stocks
(copyright of Deutsche Bank Research)

I picked a few companies to zoom in on:

Hong Leong Asia (HLA SP) - S$1.970 (mid-day 17Jan07)

The white goods market is growing at 10% pa, reflecting rising penetration of
refrigerators into the Chinese population. Investors generally expect strong earnings
growth for Xinfei, reflecting cost efficiencies and a higher effective stake. Xinfei also
plans increased product launches and capacity expansion in 2007 to drive the
growth momentum.
For the diesel engine business, FY05 earnings took a beating due to a weaker
product mix. Management has started seeing indications of demand patterns
normalizing, which could result in improved margins.
GPac continued to generate losses due to delays in ramping up sales. Customers
were taking longer than expected to change products. Breakeven could come later
this year if an order from an anchor customer is secured.
The building materials business was boosted by an uptick in construction activity,
which resulted in an increase in selling prices for ready mix concrete (5%), cement
(9%) and granite (17%) in 2006.

AsiaPharm Group Ltd (APHM SP) - S$0.800 (mid-day 17Jan07)

Following its latest acquisitions of cancer treatment injection drug CMNa and an
oncology pharmaceutical unit Nanjing Kanghai Pharmaceutical Ltd, AsiaPharm will
continue to explore other accretive acquisitions.
Distribution agreement with international drug distribution agency KKC Corp in South
Korea should enable AsiaPharm to pave its entry into the South Korean market and
extend its regional footprint.
Management believes that the key success for AsiaPharm depends on the
integration of its existing and newly acquired businesses

Jiutian Chemical (JIUC SP) - S$1.400 (mid-day 17Jan07)

The group believes that demand for DMF was ~500,000 ton in 2006 and is
forecasted to grow >30% for 2007. To leverage on it, the group will focus on
capacity expansion in the medium term.
The DMF plant is on track to expand from the current 30,000mt capacity to
150,000mt and is expected to commence by 3Q07. Management aims for 100%
production ramp-up by 4Q07.
Management explained that the company did not export its products because of
strong domestic demand and good working relationships it has established with
local customers. Further, DMF are sold domestically at ~RMB6,200/ton compared
to the export price of RMB9,000/ton, which is not significantly lower.

A Simple Stocks Story

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Sun, 14 Jan 2007 06:23:00 +0000

Hahaha..its time for another short story to end the week..or should I say start a new week....Lesson number 2: When trading with Singapore stocks, unless they have really good fundamentals, neber hold for long term!

I remembered some time back, I asked my Business Finance teacher Mr Bobby, "Sir, if you are to buy a stock, would you choose on positive techinical analysis or positive fundamental analysis?"

He replied."Fundamentals of course. Technicals are for short term and unless you feel extremely confident, go with the basics, i.e. companies with good fundaments."

It was a number of years back when I started trading stocks. One of the first local companies which I invested in was Allied Technologies Ltd. It was a good move then. The market was booming and all the technology stocks were all in high volume. Allied Tech was one fo them. I see it grew beyond 100% profit! I was trilled when I calculated that I could earn a neat sum of 10k if I was to sell at that moment in time! My first mistake was my greed and I wanted more thinking the stock should be able to reach a higher peak.

Disaster struck and it went tumbling down...everyday. My second mistake was watching it fall withou doing anything! I was thinking..."whatever goes down will go up again!" Of course a person's greed will make him fall. I was thinking that why should I settle for a profit much lesser than before! I mus wait for that moment again! But....that moment never came. It fell rock bottom and now that stock has dropped beyond the price which I initially bought! It was a turnover of at least 150%!

It was a painful lesson which I have learnt and never will forget! Always monitor the market closely; Do not let greed guide you instead of fundamentals; Minimise losses or profits when necessary.

Stock Focus - Construction Sector

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Tue, 09 Jan 2007 14:56:00 +0000

I believe the recent uptrends in the small cap stocks in the construction sector is but a mirage. Going through their recent projects and their financial results, the outlooks are positive for some, but not impressive. I believe that fundamentals do play a big part in the market, but if the technical analysis do not show positive signs as well, I try to avoid. In the Singapore stock market, I stick with my views that all are but speculations, unless their financial results proved otherwise. I foresee the trend in construction sector breaking soon, because they are due for correction. Personally I was quite tempted to buy in a few because of their high volumes and the low prices, but keep in mind that even though you may earn more, you may also lose more.

Companies in view: CSC (S$0.300); Lian Beng (S$0.275); BBR (S$0.150); Sapphire (S$0.050)

Stock Focus

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Fri, 05 Jan 2007 05:01:00 +0000

So far the stocks I have looked into are quite on track I should say.

1) Genting International

Stock price rised trmendously for the past few days, reaching a peak of S$1.20 on 04Jan2007. I was monitoring the stock closely for these few days, thinking of when the stock will drop. I sold mine at S$0.915 on Wednesday, thinking the stock would at most float around S$1.00. But it finally broke yesterday and it now stands at S$0.91 at mid-day. Previous post on Genting, the price was S$0.765.

2) Asiapharm

The director called for a trading halt two days before, while the market was on a boom. It was pretty demoralizing seeing all the others stocks rising while Asiapharm lost its chance. But the last time a trading halt was called, the company bought another chinese drug company that produce a cancer drug no other company is producing. Asiapharm has monopoly on that drug. Yesterday the halt was lifted and I was expecting good news from the company again. I was right and the stock rose S$0.10 to a mid-day price of S$0.77, from my previous post when it was S$0.665.

A Simple Warrants' Story

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Wed, 03 Jan 2007 03:32:00 +0000

Seeing the listed Warrants on the SGX website reminds me of a story on how Warrants can make or break. By the way the story's lead is me...hahahaha....anyway I did quite a lot of research on a few companies that have very high volume for their warrants back then...including DBS, Capitaland, Semcorp Marine etc.

My first trade of warrant, I pocketed a net profit of 2K from a DBS warrant offered by Deutsche Bank. My second trade was Capitaland's warrant....profited another 2K....another Capitaland for my third trade...yet another 2K....and all these was earned within a month or I should say three weeks....I was excited by the high returns....so I bought SemMarine warrants thinking the good outlook for the company will push the warrants sky high....but disaster struck and the market was due to a huge correction....blue chips went way down..and due to the gearing effect..the warrants fell big time.I was at a loss whether to minimise losses or to wait for post-correction. The decision has to be made FAST because the warrant was going to expire soon!

I made a wrong move and i waited....within 3 weeks or waiting....I lost 6K which offsets all my efforts for the past 3 trades! I was very frustrated that all my hard work went down the drain. But well, its was a good lesson learnt.

An analogy: If the small fishes want to swim slowly and steadily, they take the calm seas. All is peaceful but takes longer time. If the small fishes want to swim further faster, anticipate the big fishes and swim with them through the stormy seas. But when the big waves come, the big fishes live, but all the small fishes will die.

Book Recommendation + Stock Focus

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Sun, 31 Dec 2006 08:05:00 +0000

I just finished Adam Khoo's book, "Secrets of Self-Made Millionaires". I like the book mainly because he has captured many important points in life which I would not have thought of. He covers also some startup businesses and well as tips on the stock market! I find his insights on investing quite interesting and relevant to the local market. His straightforward style of writing is also quite comprehensive, even for an unexperienced investor. The book has inspired me to give more thought inot my future, and hopefully yours too.

Stock Focus! Genting International has climbed tremendously for the past 3 days. It has reached 140% increase in stock price since its IPO price of S$0.35! The stock has occupied the top volume for the past few days as well...a friend suggested it may be the fund managers pushing the stock up to increase the values of the convertible bonds. I fear the stock price has already been overvalued and a sudden pull out from the fund managers may result in a sudden drop.

New Blog !!! & Good News!

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Fri, 29 Dec 2006 17:51:00 +0000

I decided to start another Blog! It will be entirely on my illustrations as well as my drawings. Feel free to take a look and who knows, it may just lighten up your day! There is a link on the left panel of the site ---------"The Simple Cartoonist"--->

Good new is...Singapore market closed on a year high record of 2985.83 for the year 2006!

Hopefully this good news leads us to another good year! Upcoming local news that may be interesting to note (and affect the market) are: the increase in GST....the CPF 3% cap on sales fees of investment products....

2007 - Year of US president election.....expect a good year of investment ahead! As they say, a good president who takes care of its country's economy, wins the votes of his citizens......

8 Criteria of Choosing Stocks

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Thu, 28 Dec 2006 06:05:00 +0000

Adam Khoo's 8 Criteria of picking good stocks!

1) History of consistently increasing sales and earnings
2) Sustainable competitive advantage
3) Future Growth Drivers
4) Conservative Debt - Low Long term debt
5) Return on Equity (ROE) must be consistent and high
6) Low Capital Expenditure required to maintain current operations
7) Honest & Competent management
8) UNDERVALUED: Share price < Intrisic price

Pretty basic stuff, but these are the things which we always overlook...

Good news for STI?

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Wed, 27 Dec 2006 07:26:00 +0000

After reading up what Adam Khoo has wrote on Warren Buffet's approach to picking stocks and NOT losing money, I developed this fear for the Singapore stock market. STI has reached a record high of 2960 by mid-day. Does this mean that the market is really breaking through the 3000 mark, as mentioned in the papers? Analysts believe so, as I read from reports by investment institutes. But I fear for a huge correction coming up for the market.

If according to Warren Buffet's approach, the market will always go up. It is just a matter of time, because inflation will always make prices go higher.

He says,
"Buy when the prices are falling, when they become undervalued. Sell when the prices are rising, when they become overvalued."

So is the Singapore market becoming over-valued?

I always believe what goes up will eventually come down, if you know what I mean....

Local Stock Focus "Asiapharm"

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Tue, 26 Dec 2006 07:03:00 +0000

I have taken interest in a particular local stock, "Asiapharm". Its core business lies in manufacturing of pharmaceutical products with its factories in China. I believe the sector is still in its booming stage and given the huge potential of the China market, the company should be able to expect higher earnings in the future. It range of products targets specific treatment uses and thus monopolises areas in the sector. With good fundamentals and potential gowth....a good buy perhaps? (Mid-day price on 26Dec06 - S$0.665)

Warren Buffet's Two Rules of Investing

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Mon, 25 Dec 2006 16:50:00 +0000

Investing Rule 1:
Never Lose Money.

Investing Rule 2:
Never forget rule number one.

I find this very interesting. Apparently, Mr Buffet, world second richest man, world most recognized investor, neber invest when he do not have confident of making profits. I always thought he made money from single BIG investments, but what he does is manage a balanced portfolio and generates only about 20 to 30% each time.

I also read up Adam Khoo's "Secrets of Self-Made Millionaire" and I agreed with him on the part on local stocks (SGX stocks). I quote,

" US stock market is so huge and there is so much money pouring into it, the market is a lot more efficient as compared to Asian markets in general. As a result, stock prices tend to follow stock earnings more closely.......In Asian and emerging markets, where the market is small and where prices depend a lot on foreign institutional investors, stock prices may not reflect the value and earnings of the company......there is not enough liquidity, or cash in the market."

The first post!

noreply@blogger.com (YiDE) — Sun, 24 Dec 2006 14:35:00 +0000

After reading so many people's blogs, I finally decided to start a blog myself. But instead of sharing with everyone my thoughts on investing, I decided to share with everyone the latest news and updates in the market! I aim to be a successful investor, and I hope all those who share my dream achieve success together with me. I will try share my virtual portfolio, my real portfolio and latest news on the market. I will also express my views and opinions as well as topic for discussions. Lets make money together! Keep the comments coming in! Cheers!